How much Americans shopped last month. It shows the strength of consumer spending, about 70% of the economy.
Japan time (JST, winter)22:30
Japan time (JST, summer)21:30
Importance★★★
FrequencyOnce a month
Release dateMid-month, every month
Released byUS Census Bureau (Department of Commerce)
1A 30-second chat
JUDITHCan shopping really move the market?
JADEAbout 70% of the US economy is consumer spending. So when spending drops, people worry about the whole economy
JUDITHIs the headline number enough?
JADECar and gasoline sales swing with price changes, so we also look at the number without them. When the total and the details point in opposite directions, the market often follows the details.
2Just check this
1
Retail sales (month-over-month)
Growth in total shopping
2
Excluding autos
The figure excluding autos, which swing a lot. It shows the real strength of spending more clearly
3
Control group
Excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and restaurants. It's used in GDP calculations, so it gets a lot of attention
3How does the market move?
Price moves on the size of the gap vs. forecast, more than on whether the result is good or bad
▲ Stronger than expectedStrong spending → strong economy → US rates ↑ → USD tends to rise
▼ Weaker than expectedWeak spending → weak economy → US rates ↓ → USD tends to fall
These are common patterns. Depending on the news at the time, price can move the other way.
The direction is different every time. Right after the release, price can swing either way.
4Prop firm watch-outs
This data often comes out in the same week as CPI. When there are two big events in one week, decide your budget for the whole week in advance so you don't use up your loss limit on the first day.
FUNDED7 rules:Holding trades through a release is allowed, but opening a new large position right before a release is a no-go (Official FAQ）
Daily loss line:5% of the previous day's closing balance. Unrealized losses count too (Official FAQ）
The rules for not failing on data release days are in the illustrated rulebook Add us on LINE to get the rulebook and getting-started guide for free. We also hold a free Zoom intro session for beginners every Friday from 22:00
