Measures how much the prices of goods and services have risen (inflation). It feeds directly into decisions on rate cuts and hikes.
Japan time (JST, winter)22:30
Japan time (JST, summer)21:30
Importance★★★
FrequencyOnce a month
Release dateMid-month, every month
Released byUS Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)
1A 30-second chat
JUDITHWhy do stocks fall when prices rise?
JADEIf prices stay high, the Fed can't cut rates. And when rates are high, tech stocks, which people buy for their future growth, tend to be sold the most.
JUDITHHeadline or core: which should I look at?
JADEThe market mainly reacts to core. It strips out jumpy parts like gasoline prices, so it shows the "real momentum of prices."
2Just check this
1
Headline
Growth in prices across all items
2
Core
Prices excluding food and energy, which swing a lot. The Fed puts more weight on this one
3
Month-over-month and year-over-year
Year-over-year compares with "a year ago"; month-over-month compares with "last month." For momentum, look at month-over-month
3How does the market move?
Price moves on the size of the gap vs. forecast, more than on whether the result is good or bad
▲ Stronger than expectedStrong inflation → rate cuts move further away → US rates ↑ → USD tends to rise, Nasdaq tends to fall
▼ Weaker than expectedWeak inflation → rate cuts get closer → US rates ↓ → USD tends to fall, Nasdaq tends to rise
These are common patterns. Depending on the news at the time, price can move the other way.
The direction is different every time. Right after the release, price can swing either way.
4Prop firm watch-outs
CPI can move the market a lot on tiny differences (0.1%). Even when it matches the forecast, price often jerks up and down before picking a direction. Don't jump in during the first few minutes after the release, and check first that you have room left on your daily loss line.
FUNDED7 rules:Holding trades through a release is allowed, but opening a new large position right before a release is a no-go (Official FAQ）
Daily loss line:5% of the previous day's closing balance. Unrealized losses count too (Official FAQ）
The rules for not failing on data release days are in the illustrated rulebook Add us on LINE to get the rulebook and getting-started guide for free. We also hold a free Zoom intro session for beginners every Friday from 22:00
