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Importance ranking: #10

US Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims

The number of people who lost their jobs and filed for unemployment benefits last week. It comes out every week, so it's the fastest way to check changes in jobs.

Japan time (JST, winter)22:30
Japan time (JST, summer)21:30
Importance★★★
FrequencyWeekly
Release dateEvery Thursday
Released byUS Department of Labor (DOL)

1A 30-second chat

JUDITH
JUDITHIf it comes out every week, does the market move a lot every week?
JADE
JADEUsually it's small. But when people are worried about the economy, a sudden jump alone can cause a big move
JUDITH
JUDITHHow should I read it?
JADE
JADEDon't judge from a single week. Use the 4-week average to see the trend. In a jobs report week, Thursday's number is also a clue for Friday's forecast

2Just check this

1

Initial claims

How many people newly filed last week. A rise is a sign jobs are getting worse

2

Continuing claims

The number of people still receiving unemployment benefits. Shows how easy it is to find a new job

3

4-week average

A number that smooths out week-to-week swings. Use this one to see the trend

3How does the market move?

The gap vs. forecast Fcst Consensus Data 22:30 release Stronger Market-moving Weaker Reverses As expected = small move
Price moves on the size of the gap vs. forecast, more than on whether the result is good or bad
▲ Stronger than expectedFewer claims(strong jobs)→ The dollar tends to strengthen
▼ Weaker than expectedMore claims(weak jobs)→ The dollar tends to weaken

These are common patterns. Depending on the news at the time, price can move the other way.

Release moment Before: wait After: big swings Spreads widen Stops can slip too 22:30 release
The direction is different every time. Right after the release, price can swing either way.

4Prop firm watch-outs

It comes out every Thursday at 22:30 (21:30 in summer). Even a small indicator can cause bigger moves in weeks when it lands at the same time as GDP or other releases, so make it a habit to check all of that day's releases every Thursday.

Daily loss line (50K account) Prior day end balance $50,000 Break this = fail $47,500 5% Max loss/day $2,500 (incl. unrealized) New day: 7am winter/6am summer
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Daily loss line:5% of the previous day's closing balance. Unrealized losses count too (Official FAQ)
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Source: DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims/ Release times shift with US daylight saving time. Dates may change due to holidays, etc.

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